U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s Potential Arms Transfer to Russia
We’ve Never Been Closer to World War III Than Ever Before
The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said.
▪️The discussions on public disclosure come ahead of Friday’s United Nations Security Council meeting marking one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. It follows a number of closed-door appeals to China—coordinated among North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies—that culminated in a formal warning delivered over the weekend in Munich to Wang Yi, China’s senior foreign-policy official, by a number of western officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly.
▪️The Blinken-Wang meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference ended with no sign of common ground on key issues, according to descriptions from people familiar with the sit-down. One of those sources described it as “tense,” with the recent shootdown of a Chinese surveillance balloon overshadowing the conversation.
▪️In recent weeks, Western nations have picked up on intelligence that Beijing might end its previous self-imposed restraint on weapons supplies to Russia, according to U.S. and European officials, although it appears that China hasn’t yet made a final decision. Beijing had previously been cautious to confine its support to financial assistance and oil purchases, the officials said, but that stance now appears to be shifting, according to the latest intelligence assessments.
▪️“Until now,” a senior western official said, there “has been a certain amount of ambiguity about what practical help China might give Russia.” The official said that the intelligence the U.S. and its allies have now is “much less ambiguous.”
▪️That China might provide lethal weapons to Russia—based on new intelligence—is a marked departure from the more general dual-use goods that Chinese firms have been providing over the past year, U.S. and European officials say. The officials declined to detail what the intelligence said.
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